We are through the third full week of iPhone 16 availability and the iPhone 16 Pro backlog is beginning to stabilize. Here is where we were this time in 2023 (iPhone 15 Pro backlog shown):
Many things could have changed in the way that carriers forecast iPhone sales, how Apple responds to supply shortages, and base upgrade strategies. The bottom line is it’s a lot easier to get the iPhone 16 Pro in any color (except White Titanium – both in 2023 and today). We think it’s a demand decrease (particularly at T-Mobile and Verizon), and, as a result of slower demand, the backlog on the iPhone 16 Pro should be clear in October.
That is not the case with the iPhone Pro Max. As the chart in the attachment shows, backlogs are growing, mostly by a week. This is how backlog issues have started in the past. We think that this is driven by higher upgrade demand for commercial customers, but also by Apple aficionados at Verizon and AT&T. Those customers know enough about Apple Intelligence to make the jump now.
That’s it for this week. File is below. We have a tale of two models, and backlogs will be different for the Pro and Pro Max.
