We are now six weeks from general availability of the iPhone 16 product launch. In the pre-COVID past, somewhere between the 8th and 9th week, everything stabalized and there were no backlogs after Thanksgiving. The result was a higher upgrade rate. Hitting stabalization between weeks six and seven (our full expectation) is likely an indicator of hesitant purchasers rather than an outright abandonment of Apple. The multi-phased rollout of Apple Intelligence is delaying some buying decsions.
As we said in this week’s Brief (here), we expect a slower than normal upgrade rate until analysts and influencers (and friends and coworkers) generate enough buzz about their personal experiences to accelerate adoption.
We will check the backlog next week but will not publsh a post if the charts look similar today’s. Overall, this was a shorter cycle which has been accompanied by lower upgrade rates. File is below.
