This was another week when the Fab Five bucked the market trend (+$164B for last week and +$376B for last two weeks). Over the last four weeks, the S&P is down slightly (0.54%) while the Fab Five have gained over $744 billion in value (+4.5%). These five equities make up ~25% of the S&P 500 weighting. The remaing stocks in the S&P Index are meaningfully down over the last four weeks.
Losers include several suppliers for AI infrastructure build. We have discussed the rise of these companies in past Briefs, but here is a sampling of the suppliers to the AI companies:
Vertiv, a supplier of electrical systems to data centers (and to CellSite Solutions), leads the pack for long-term value creation with VC-esque returns. Each of these companies has been impacted by the recent selloff as speculation mounts that fulfillment (and supply chain) is straining to keep up with demand.
Generac sticks out on the other end, as five years ago we were experiencing peak post-COVID “cocooning” time (the company is the market leader in home generator systems). They also announced this week (here) that they had signed a long-term multi-billion dollar agreement with Amazon to supply the company with backup generators.
The Telco Top Five had a really bad week which wiped out all of 2026 YTD gains (-$41 billion). No company was immune, and T-Mobile was hit particularly hard (-$15 billion). We continue to watch the spread between the Big 3 wireless carriers. Entering 2026, T-Mobile had a $43 billion advantage over AT&T and a $46 billion advantage over Verizon. As of Friday, Verizon had a $20 billion advantage over AT&T ($66 billion value shift in 8.5 months) and the spread between AT&T and T-Mobile was only $6 billion ($37 billion value shift). We predicted that AT&T could overtake T-Mobile by the end of the year, and that checkpoint might be met in the next 60 days.
As we have indicated in other Briefs, this is not a “T-Mobile is in an operational tailspin” story, but rather one about the relative success of their competitors. Verizon is in the midst of a rapid transition (which we think has short-term legs – not sure about the long term, however) while AT&T is plowing through their transition to a fiber-centric product and services company (progress will be slower and steadier than Big Red). All three providers are gaining value versus cable.
A good piece of news for wireless and broadband providers came from the Census Bureau (owner of the retail sales report) which showed unexpectedly strong growth in August (report here). There are increasing signs that both higher and lower-income brackets are spending more, even excluding automobiles and gas purchases. The GDP Now estimate at the Atlanta Fed continues to show over 5.0% real GDP growth for the quarter, and the seasonally weak fourth quarter will be helped by the fact that a government shutdown will not occur in 2026.
Strong consumer spending also is a good sign for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launches which started yesterday. We will post the initial backlogs tomorrow night. In the meantime, our full file is below. Have a great remainder of the weekend!
