This is our first take on availability/ backlog for the iPhone 15 cycle. Several notes:

1. Verizon and T-Mobile are “Ships by” date and AT&T is “Delivered by” date. We usually subtract 3-4 days from AT&T to equate the two
2. The iPhone 15 Pro Max now starts at 256 GB storage. Good move to keep the base price for their premium model high but it also reduces the number of Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) that the stores need to keep on-hand by 25%
3. The iPhone 15 and 15 Plus are largely in stock. There were a few one-week delays in certain color/size combinations, but we have seen that many times before. Therefore, our focus is on the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max. This also indicates that there isn’t a lot of economy-driven “downsizing” when it comes to the iPhone (36-month installments help this)
4. We noticed with this first iteration how bland the color choices were for the Pro and Pro Max. Titanium Blue vs. Titanium Black were especially hard to differentiate (this is not a statement about Apple at all, but previous models have had other color choices that have driven demand)

That said, here are our very preliminary takes on the iPhone 15 selling cycle:

1. AT&T demand is very robust. It could be the trade-in offer, or it could be base upgrades, or it could be something entirely different, but sales are very brisk at AT&T. Note: We have seen this “out of stock” condition before, but it’s definitely noticeable
2. T-Mobile demand is especially tepid. iPhone 15 in stock, iPhone 15 Pro with reasonable backlogs, and iPhone 15 Pro Max generally available. Did they order too much? Are economic conditions taking a toll on demand? Is the 24-month payment window driving prices too high relative to Verizon and AT&T (36 months)? Lots of questions here
3. Verizon is on track for a predictable selling season. Those of us who remember last December know that 2022 was anything but normal. We think “as expected” is probably the right term

File is below. Welcome your comments. Based on what we see in the first week, this is not a blowout, but an “on track” selling season for Apple (which is a relief considering the production conditions in 2021 and 2022).