This week’s analysis will be the last to exclude the iPhone Duo which was released for preorder on Friday and immediately sold out. We have looked at the preliminary backlogs and our original hunch was correct – Duo is going to be a hit. If you have promised someone an iPhone Duo for the Holidays, it’s probably good to order yours this week. First Duo backlog charts will be in next week’s report.
Meanwhile, we have the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launches, now entering their fifth week. We still continue to expect general availability or GA (defined as 95+% of color/ memory size available for each of the Big 3 carriers) by November 1st. Today, that figure is at 83% (40 of 48 permutations available today) – six additional backlogged combinations need to be resolved in the next two weeks. Absent significant production issues, we should be good.
The iPhone 18 Pro Max situation is different, especially at the lower memory (256GB) end. Only 32% of the 48 combinations are in stock, and none of the 256GB memory devices are available for shipment today in any color across any carrier. This has been the case for Pro max launches in the past, but those launches did not include a Duo launch. The GA target in the past for the Pro Max has been Thanksgiving which is less than six weeks away. No one wants to deal with backlogs and shortages on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or any other day between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
It doesn’t appear that one carrier is leading the way with iPhone 18 Pro Max sales. They are steady, and backlogs are slipping each week for each of the Big 3 (but only by a week in most instances). This is typical for this point in the iPhone sales cycle. We don’t think that Apple is going to reduce production of the iPhone 18 Pro Max to make more Duo devices, but might cut back on iPhone 18 Pro production. Regardless, the Cupertino giant is going to have their hands full with Duo – their backlogs should extend into mid-January.
File is below. We hope to get further color from AT&T and Comcast when they release 3Q earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. Have a terrific remainder of the weekend!
