Backlogs for the iPhone 18 Pro are minimal this week (see above chart). A few color/ memory shortages which, if history is a guide, will be around for another couple of weeks until full general availability.
The iPhone 18 Pro Max continues to have shortages. As we have mentioned in other iPhone posts, this is reflective of two major changes: 1) T-Mobile adding a 36-month equipment installment plan option (previous was 24), and 2) additional 36-month EIP customers coming off of plan.
We have seen a very wide range of projections for iPhone Duo sales (which we will add starting in two weeks). Our take is that, despite the high price, the Duo will be backlogged through the Holiday season (backlogs were common for the iPhone Pro Max a few years ago). Initial reviews are good (CNET review here) and we think there will be very strong applications for business.
While Apple did reduce their component orders (estimates of 15-20% decrease), we don’t know is some of those sales went to the iPhone Pro Max because of T-Mobile’s 36-month pricing introduction. Regardless, unless there are to be announced Duo supply chain issues, we would be surprised to see combined iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and Duo sales lower than iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max.
Charts are attached. We are still forecasting general availability of the iPhone 18 Pro by October 26 and iPhone Pro Max by early November. We are not going to forecast Duo availability at this time.
Have a terrific remainder of the weekend!
