This is our ninth season of tracking iPhone availability. This analysis should not be measured as an indicator of specific line or carrier sales (each carrier orders a different amount for launch and aligns their promotional schedule to match that level), but can be used as an overall indicator of the health of the iPhone 17 launch.
For those of you who are new to this process, we have been pulling iPhone online availability data for many years. We choose a specific time each week (usually Saturday at 6 or 7 p.m. ET because it’s convenient) and maintain that timing consistency through the cycle. We track “ships by” dates for Verizon and T-Mobile and “delivered by” dates for AT&T.
We start by confirming that there aren’t anamolies in the iPhone 17 availability. We focus on the lowest entry level device (iPhone 17, 256 GB storage). We are seeing some supply constraints at T-Mobile and AT&T with the iPhone 17 (more than a one week delay) based on specific colors, but our history shows us that these delays are rectified within three weeks (important as the carriers want plenty of supply on hand prior to Black Friday and the remainder of the Holiday selling season). If these continue for a carrier for more than four weeks, then there are some market share shifts occurring.
Last year, all supply issues were resolved by the second Saturday in November (and by November 2, issues were very limited). Usually, there is one color that has a supply constraint – last year it was White (and, with one carrier, Desert). This year, it’s Silver and (T-Mobile only) Cosmic Orange.
With all of those caveats, here are the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max charts for the last two weeks:
iPhone 17 Pro – Sept 20 and 27
What these charts tell us is that Silver is the color in short supply, at least at T-Mobile. Other than that, entry level sales are under control (a one-week backlog is not uncommon in an iPhone launch at week two in the selling cycle). Given plentiful inventory of the new iPhone Air, we can only wonder if/ how those sales are impacting the iPhone 17 Pro.
As we mentioned in last week’s Brief, Apple and the carriers are targing customers who can afford to upgrade from the iPhone 17 to the Pro (and to the Pro Max). The first two weeks of data indicates to us that iPhone customers are migrating more often in a “like for like” manner than upgrading (or it also could be saying that the carriers’ forecasts about upgrade percentages are spot on. Given years of working with carrier forecasts, we are sticking with the “like for like” thesis). It’s rare that a current iPhone 16 Pro customer would migrate “down” to an iPhone 17 and we are not seeing any indication of that in this initial launch.
iPhone 17 Pro Max – Sept 20 and 27
Something happened with Cosmic Orange at T-Mobile when it comes to the iPhone 17 Pro Max. We are going to attribute that to the carrier as there do not appear to be similar issues at AT&T or Verizon. The overall chart for the Pro Max looks like many other Pro Max launches – color constraints but generally 2-3 week backlog. If this persists past the last week in October, then we have the makings of a larger cycle, but it’s unlikely.
PDFs of each are below. Please email at [email protected] if you have further questions about methodology or on the first two weeks of analysis. The bottom line is Silver is constrained (not surprising), iPhone Air is completely unconstrained, and we think that there is some play between the iPhone Air and the lower end of the iPhone 17 Pro.
