Happy Sunday – here are the charts for the iPhone 17 Pro (top chart is last week, bottom chart is this week):
With the exception of AT&T, things are generally moving to the left (meaning greater availability). Our prediction still holds that substantially all of the iPhone 17 Pro issues will be resolved by the next report (our prediction is 90% color/ memory/ carrier availability).
What is interesting is that AT&T is still a little backlogged. We have noted that the 36-month expiry of equipment installment plans may have created more renewal demand than previously expected. This thesis seems to hold at the iPhone 17 (the regular variety) as they are showing consistent Nov 3 “delivered by” dates (Sage, the new color, has a slightly longer wait). Their overall upgrade rate was 60 basis points (0.6%) higher in 3Q 2025 than 3Q 2024. It’s interesting that Verizon is not seeing a mirror trend.
Now for the iPhone 17 Pro Max:
Definitely a marked movement to the left for Verizon and T-Mobile. Again, this would lead us to a mid-to late November general availability for the iPhone 17 Pro Max. There appears to be a greater thn expected upgrade rate (not much, but slight) from existing Pro users to the Pro Max lineup. Not major, not a supercycle, but some movement. Absent a large promotional push for the Pro Max during the Holiday season, we think this is on track to mimic 2024.
Speaking of which, here are the similar charts for the same period in 2024 (iPhone 16 Pro first, followed by the Pro Max):
So there is a difference between 2024 and 2025. Is it dramatic? No. Is it going to impact the Holiday selling season? No, unless Verizon takes a drastic promotion to try to regain share losses.
Is it surprising to see even longer intervals given increasingly higher upgrade rates for Verizon and AT&T in the first three quarters of 2025 (likely driven by tariff panic but could also be the beginnings of equipment installment plan expiration)? Yes.
We think that some shortages for iPhones are great after 2024 (note the color choice differences – in retrospect, Apple’s color scheme was more bland than in 2025). We hope these comparison charts reinforce the notion that the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are doing better than their iPhone 16 counterparts, but that’s a low bar to cross, and it in now way indicates a supercycle.
PDFs are below. Welcome any quesitons or comments to [email protected].
