Happy Sunday.
Well, our predictions were off by a week. In mid-October we forecasted that the iPhone 17 Pro would be generally available (all colors, all sizes) by Nov 1. Here are the charts as of Nov 1 (top) and Nov 8 (bottom):
With 26 of 27 color/ memory/ carrier combinations in stock, we are calling general availability for the iPhone 17 Pro. Because there are fewer SKUs than in 2024 (three memory sizes vs. four in part Pro models), there is (slightly) actually greater availability than we had in early November last year (last year’s Brief post here).
We cannot declare general availability on the iPhone 17 Pro Max yet, but are getting closer:
We have seen this with past Pro Max releases – one color (in this case, silver) creates a backlog. We have at least one more week (likely two) prior to general availability – just in time for Black Friday offers. The Pro max availability pattern of the last several weeks indicates a slightly higher (3-5% more than expectations) upgrade rate from the Pro to the Pro Max among the existing base. We have not studied promotional activity in detail to determine which (if any) promotions might be contributing to this upgrade rate.
As we said last week, the iPhone 17 selling season was better than the iPhone 16. That’s a low bar to hurdle, and the insights from this season’s upgrades will help the carriers more accurately plan for next year. Within the range of possible consumer discretionary purchases, iPhone purchases/ upgrades rank slightly higher than analysts projected. This is good news for the wireless carriers and cable MVNOs.
One last note on the iPhone 17 (regular edition): A shortage in a particular color (this year it’s sage) is not the same as a supercycle. It’s also not an indication that customers are economically anxious (they may be, but 36-month smartphone installment payments are not changing as a result). It simply indicates that sage is a highly popular color – the “rose gold” of iPhones past.
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