Black Friday has come and gone. Cyber Monday is coming up. Through all of the retail swirl, iPhone availability is holding up remarkably well. Couple of points:
- iPhone 13 availability is starting to show some cracks at Verizon (128 GB memory) and AT&T (512 GB memory). We did not see any specific promotions for low-end iPhone at Verizon, but guessing this is a very short-term supply issue. The AT&T 512GB memory backlog is also (relatively) small numbers math – this is the V6 in an Honda Accord, after all.
- We think there’s more dynamics in play with the iPhone 13 Pro availability. Our channel experts are indicating that demand at T-Mobile (perhaps helped by increased Walmart presence?) is strong and growing. Also, when you examine the week-over-week changes and see that availability has not moved on the page, that indicates a one week slip. Nothing major, but, despite planning for a robust Holiday season (and tradeoffs made by Apple to double down on iPhone deliveries at the expense of iPads), it’s still going to be tight.
- iPhone 13 Pro Max is where things get really interesting. Clearly, Apple has indicated to AT&T and Verizon that new supply will be ready for delivery by ~ Dec 12-16 (leave a few days for shipping to occur). Watch this space to see if that changes. We also tend to see some increased corporate ordering in December which can throw backlogs for a loop.
Bottom line: Apple wins. We think all of the carriers are going to do well with the iPhone 13, but T-Mobile appears to have a slight edge over Verizon and AT&T in both the Pro and Pro Max. Availability has improved versus last year’s Holiday selling season (it could not get any worse).