Black Friday has come and gone. Cyber Monday is coming up. Through all of the retail swirl, iPhone availability is holding up remarkably well. Couple of points:

1. iPhone 13 availability is starting to show some cracks at Verizon (128 GB memory) and AT&T (512 GB memory). We did not see any specific promotions for low-end iPhone at Verizon, but guessing this is a very short-term supply issue. The AT&T 512GB memory backlog is also (relatively) small numbers math – this is the V6 in an Honda Accord, after all.
2. We think there’s more dynamics in play with the iPhone 13 Pro availability. Our channel experts are indicating that demand at T-Mobile (perhaps helped by increased Walmart presence?) is strong and growing. Also, when you examine the week-over-week changes and see that availability has not moved on the page, that indicates a one week slip. Nothing major, but, despite planning for a robust Holiday season (and tradeoffs made by Apple to double down on iPhone deliveries at the expense of iPads), it’s still going to be tight.
3. iPhone 13 Pro Max is where things get really interesting. Clearly, Apple has indicated to AT&T and Verizon that new supply will be ready for delivery by ~ Dec 12-16 (leave a few days for shipping to occur). Watch this space to see if that changes. We also tend to see some increased corporate ordering in December which can throw backlogs for a loop.

Bottom line: Apple wins. We think all of the carriers are going to do well with the iPhone 13, but T-Mobile appears to have a slight edge over Verizon and AT&T in both the Pro and Pro Max. Availability has improved versus last year’s Holiday selling season (it could not get any worse).