Attached is the latest view of the backlog. Note – this is from online only, and in-store availability could be different. Here’s a summary of the week/ week changes:
- iPhone 13 – most of the outages have been eliminated at T-Mobile and AT&T. Verizon still having issues at the smaller memory end. We think this is a product of them beginning the “existing customer” upgrade cycle that we saw at AT&T last year. Still interesting that Verizon is having supply issues and AT&T/ T-Mobile are not.
- iPhone 13 Pro – remember, we are 11 full weeks into the sales cycle with this device (comparisons to 2020 are not allowed for the Pro and Pro Max devices). The iPhone 12 Pro was introduced Oct 23 2020 (a full month later than the iPhone 13 Pro) and the iPhone 12 Pro Max was introduced on Nov 13 2020 (6+ weeks later than the iPhone 13 Pro Max). For this reason alone, we expect very favorable year/ year comparisons for carrier upgrades (and iPhone sales). T-Mobile is looking at Jan 4 delivery for many storage options (later than that for the 128 GB option) which makes sense. We think T-Mobile’s backlog is driven by greater than expected T-Mobile for Business orders. More on that in next week’s Brief.
- iPhone 13 Pro Max – The contrast between AT&T and Verizon is notable this late into the cycle. One can only assume that FirstNet may be driving more “end of budget year” sales into the channel. We do not have the widespread backlog we saw last year. It’s also surprising to see how many Verizon Pro Max models are online only. This is an indicator of scarcity of supply, and Verizon has many iPhone forecasting cycles under their belt. Our view is that this may have hurt some gross addition volumes for Verizon (not significant, but every gross add matters).